futures

For the 20 anniversary issue of Market Leader I looked back to the predictions made by The Economist in 1998 (what did they get right and wrong ?) and brought it up to date with 2018 predictions.

Looking back was fascinating – The Economist got a lot right but on a couple of things they got it completely wrong – especially when it came to the Queen v Tony Blair

This article is reproduced with the permission of WARC.com. See Link to PDF

018-019 Saunders

Pundits say that anyone who claims to know what the digital revolution will bring is engaged in a confidence trick. My experience of publishing books and articles about digital futures suggests four things

-We can’t predict a decade ahead with any confidence

-A technology trend that is against the grain of human nature will most likely fail

-We do i think know what the shape of communications will be for the next three or four years.

-Futurology may be closer to fiction that sober analysis: but it will never go out of fashion as we can’t help wondering about the future

I have just published this slice of futurology in Market Leader. It contains five lessons learnt from my last attempt 10 years ago as well as nine predictions for the future. It is called The Surprise Generating Machine – a line stolen from Professor John Naughton.

Do add your predictions.

44-47 Julian Saunders 2nd proof